By Dirk Helbing
Foreword
We are free. We are free to
reinvent the world as we like. Most people have not realized it yet. However, even
though the US military budget exceeds that of all other countries in the world
together, the era of American supremacy has ended. Now that the USA needs to
focus on its own domestic affairs, and we are left free to make our own choices.
The people of the world can finally figure out their own ways of living – now
that they have to. It is no longer necessary to wait until the USA and its
strategic think tanks tell the rest of the world what to do.
This is actually a historic opportunity
– for us, for the world, and for America, too. The America-dominated era had
industrialized the world, and created previously unseen levels of luxury. It also
created a financial industry to make it happen, and a digital infrastructure to
watch and control the world. Yet, it has failed to solve the existential
challenges of our planet: climate change, environmental destruction, resource
depletion. This lack of sustainability is causing wars, mass migration, and a
future heading for disaster. A new approach – one that brings people and nature
in balance – is urgently needed.
It turns out that the reinvention
of the world has already started. The digital revolution provides us the tools
for a new historical age. Within the space of a few years, we have seen many
new technologies, ranging from cloud computing to Big Data, from Artificial
Intelligence (AI) to cognitive computing to robotics, from the Internet of
Things to Blockchain technology, from Virtual Reality to 3D printing. Now is
the perfect storm. All products, services, and business models can be digitally
reinvented – and it is happening right now.
The world’s attention has turned
to Google’s self-driving cars, Tesla’s electrical cars, and Uber’s transport as
a service. While Germany, once famous for its car industry, has plagued by the diesel
emission scandals. Suddenly, new players (such as Uber and Tesla) and outsiders
(such as Google when it comes to cars) are invading well-established sectors of
economy. And this is just the beginning...
The company AirBnb, even though
it does not own any hotels, now sells the most overnight stays in the world. Bitcoin
has reinvented money, and banks have started to worry about their future. 3D
printers can now build entire houses in a single day for just 10,000 Dollars,
and a 57-storey skyscraper has been
built in just 3 weeks. This is a revolution!
The digital revolution is also
behind a new wave of automation – and it is bigger than any such wave before.
Artificial intelligence systems can now read text, talk, and translate
languages in real-time. They can recognize patterns and contents of pictures.
They can learn anything that works according to rules or is repetitive. AI
systems can therefore potentially take over anything from to administration of
medical diagnoses, to jurisdiction. AI technology threatens not only
low-skilled labour, but also white-collar jobs.
It becomes increasingly clear
that no sector of economy will stay the same, and all institutions of society
will change – without exception and within a very short time. For Europe, this
is a particular concern, because the leading hardware, software, and data
companies (with very few exceptions) are located in other continents. Even
though “industry 4.0” seems to be successful in creating automated solutions
for industrial production – do you know the names of the leading companies?.
This is probably a side effect of
globalization as we know it. We thought that we do not have to excel in every
single technology, and that every country would specialise in producing what it
is best in, and buy the other technologies elsewhere. However, in the case of
digital technologies, this was obviously a mistake. Now, we depend on hardware,
software, and data we can’t trust anymore. As we will later see, the
sovereignty of people, companies and countries is seriously under threat.
To date, it appears that Europe
lacks a coherent digital strategy. We have a digital single market, but what
are the products and services? Even if Europe would now manage to mobilize the
capital, the patents, the technologies and labour force to generate the same
growth rate as the Silicon Valley – this backlog would grow further and
increasingly faster, because of the exponentially accelerating nature of the
digital sector. This in principle would apply, if we continue the same
digitization strategy.
However, there are alternatives. One
approach that promises to produce faster than exponential growth is combinatorial
innovation. This would be based on openness, and require sufficient
interoperability based on a reciprocity principle in order not to be exploited.
Such an approach would produce a participatory information and innovation
ecosystem, in which everyone could benefit from.
The possibilities of the digital
realm are unlimited, because the digital world is non-material in nature. This
is a game-changer. If we understand and use this well, we can live in a world
of sustainability, prosperity and peace. We could be world leaders in the
creation of this new age – a new historical era! So, what are we waiting for?
