Peaceful citizens and hard-working taxpayers are under government
surveillance. Confidential communication of journalists is intercepted.
Civilians are killed by drones, without a chance to prove their innocence.[1] How
could it come that far? Since September 11, freedom rights have been restricted
in most democracies step by step. Each terrorist threat has delivered new
reasons to extend the security infrastructure, which is eventually reaching Orwellian
dimensions. Through its individual configuration, every computer has an almost
unique fingerprint, allowing one to record our use of the Web. Privacy is gone.
Over the past years, up to 1500 variables about half a billion citizens in the
industrial world have been recorded. Google and Facebook know us better than
our friends and families.
Nevertheless, governments have failed so far to gain control of
terrorism, drug traffic, cybercrime and tax evasion. Would an omniscient state be
able to change this and create a new social order?[2] It
seems at least to be the dream of secret services and security agencies.
Ira "Gus" Hunt, the CIA Chief Technology Officer, recently
said:[3]
"You're already a walking sensor platform… You
are aware of the fact that somebody can know where you are at all times because
you carry a mobile device, even if that mobile device is turned off. You
know this, I hope? Yes? Well, you should… Since you can't connect
dots you don't have, it drives us into a mode of, we fundamentally try to
collect everything and hang on to it forever… It is really very nearly within our grasp to be able to compute on all
human generated information."
Unfortunately,
connecting the dots often does not work. As complex systems experts point out,
such "linear thinking" can be totally misleading. It's the reason why
we often want to do the right things, but take the wrong decisions.
I agree
that our world has destabilized. However, this is not a result of external
threats, but of system-immanent feedback effects. The increasing
interdependencies, connectivity and complexity of our world and further trends
are causing this.[4]
However, trying to centrally control this complexity is destined to fail. We
must rather learn to embrace the potential of complexity. This requires a step
towards decentralized self-regulatory approaches. Many of us believe in Adam
Smiths "invisible hand", according to which the best societal and
economic outcome is reached, if everybody is just doing what is best for
himself or herself. However, this principle is known to produce "market
failures", "financial meltdowns", and other "tragedies of
the commons" (such as environmental degradation) under certain
circumstances. The classical approach is to try to "fix" these problems
by top-down regulation of a powerful state.
However,
self-regulation based on decentralized rules can be learned. This has been demonstrated for modern traffic
control concepts, but it's equally relevant for smart grids, and will be even more
important for the financial system. The latter, for example, needs built-in
breaking points similar to the fuses in our electrical network at home, and it
requires additional control parameters to equilibrate.
There is an alternative to uncoordinated
bottom-up organization and too much top-down regulation -- a better one: the
"economy 2.0". Doing the step towards a self-regulating, participatory
market society can unleash the unused potential of complexity and diversity,
which we are currently trying to fight.[5]
This step can boost our societies and economies as much as the transition from
centrally regulated societies to market societies inspired by Adam Smith. But after
300 years, it's now time for a new paradigm. Societies based on surveillance
and punishment are not long-term sustainable. When controlled, people get
angry, and the economy never thrives. Qualified trust is a better basis of resilient
societies. But how to build it? Reputation systems are now spreading all over
the web. If properly designed, they could be the basis of a self-regulating
societal and market architecture. Further success principles of decentralized
self-regulating systems can be learned from ecological and immune systems. They
can also be a basis for a trustable Web, which can successfully neutralize
harmful actions and contain cybercrime.
Rather
than in surveillance technology, government should invest their money in the
creation of self-regulating architectures. It will be crucial for a successful
transition to a new era -- the era of information societies. If we take the
right decisions, the 21st century can be an age of creativity, prosperity and
participation. But if we take the wrong decisions, we will end in economic and
democratic depression. It's our choice.
[2] The
subject is discussed in my essay "Google as God?", see
http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.3271
[3] see http://www.businessinsider.com/cia-presentation-on-big-data-2013-3?op=1 and http://gigaom.com/2013/03/20/even-the-cia-is-struggling-to-deal-with-the-volume-of-real-time-social-data/2/. The FBI is pursuing a similar data mining
program, see http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/03/26/andrew_weissmann_fbi_wants_real_time_gmail_dropbox_spying_power.html
[4] D.
Helbing, Globally Networked Risks and How to Respond, Nature 497, 51-59 (2013),
see http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v497/n7447/full/nature12047.html
[5] D.
Helbing, Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards a Self-Regulating,
Participatory Market Society (2013), see http://arxiv.org/pdf/1305.4078v2.pdf
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